Thinking Long Term

Keeping What You Make

We've all heard stories about lottery winners taking home prizes of millions of dollars and years later having nothing to show for it.

It happens with professional athletes, with people who inherit money or get big packages when they are downsized.

These dramatic situations highlight a common problem.  Some people don't understand personal finance. 

People may obsess about individual investments and fail to  think about the important questions that will determine whether they can accumulate enough money for retirement or bequests or their other goals.

People don't understand the logic of the financial markets and they don't think about what they are trying to accomplish.

They concentrate on the short term and squander one of the greatest assets any investor has: time. With time, your money, if pointed in the right direction, can accomplish wondrous things.

Optimism, too, is in short supply now. After the Great Recession, most people are pessimistic about their financial futures and their actions make that pessimism likely to be justified.

With trillions of dollars earning close to zero interest -- some invested at negative yields -- their investment rewards will indeed by bleak. As it likely will be for people darting in and out of the market at record speeds.

But for those who maintain their optimism and keep to the time-tested basics of proper asset allocations, broad diversification, attention to costs and sensitivity to taxes, there's no reason to fear the future.

Messing Up

Bad Memories

Memories of the Great Recession are still uppermost in most investors' minds.

While lately some signs of cheer, perhaps even euphoria, have appeared, the recent trauma still rules.

Most investors intuitively define risk as something bad happening. But the other side of the coin is missing out on something good and that can affect their long-term prospects just as much.

Investors like to wait for the all clear sign before taking risk. By the time sunny skies appear, the stock market often has moved on.

In the current bull market -- despite public perception it's now close to four years old -- some 20 percent of the total 120 percent move came in the first two weeks in mid-March 2009 and 80 percent came in the first six months when the world still looked totally bleak if not hopeless.

Much of the rest came recently while we were under the cloud of the looming fiscal cliff. There are lots of ways to mess up in investing. Trying to guess the direction of the market and being as nervous as a cat are two of them.

Not Such Bad Shape

Will I Ever Be Able to Retire?

Many Baby Boomers are intimidated about the prospect of ever being able to retire. Having lived through the Great Recession, they have lost faith in the future.

They read about the large sums of money required for decades of retirement and the prospect of accumulating that seems daunting.

What they don't think to do is add up their assets and look at how those match up against their retirement needs.

Many boomers own a home. Most will qualify for Social Security, often with a spouse. Often they have a pension, a 401-K, an IRA. Some have a small business, a valuable collection, some investments. They also might plan to transition into retirement with a part-time job.

Next they have to figure out where they will live in retirement and what kind of lifestyle they'd like. Most people have reasonable expectations and often these are achievable, perhaps with some modest tradeoffs.

While many people are in bad shape, most Americans  are better prepared for retirement than we generally believe. Nothing pleases us more than showing people that their fears are overdone and that they can look forward to a good retirement.

Too Much Pessimism?

Sunny Days Ahead?

Pessimism is pervasive. Many people believe the economic future is bleak.

Perversely, investment strategist Richard Bernstein believes that attitude augurs well for future stock market performance.

Historically, Bull markets --- great increases in stock prices -- have often begun in difficult times when people are most discouraged and predate economic recoveries. Bernstein, formerly the top strategist for Merrill Lynch, believes that the current widespread fears and disgust are sowing the seeds for the greatest bull market of his lifetime.

Speaking at an investment conference in Boston recently, Bernstein said he sees signs of improvement in the economy. For one, he said, total debt -- including government, mortgage, consumer and business debt -- has dropped at the fastest pace in modern U.S. history.

Housing is beginning to recover as is the job market. Stock market valuations, particularly compared to other asset classes such as bonds and commodities, are reasonable.

If Bernstein is correct, the stock market could potentially soar sometime in the next few years and the economy will follow. Prosperity may not be just around the corner but don't discount the possibility that good times lie ahead.

Approaching the Cliff

No Harm, No Foul

A current pressing topic for investors is what, if anything, to do about the "Fiscal Cliff."

I learned long ago that taking actions based on expectations about what Congress will do or even has done is often a losing proposition. Congress routinely acts in ways that puzzle even its top leaders. Legislation frequently is so complex that its true impact isn't apparent for years.

Nonetheless, there are times, as at present, when thinking about possible Congressional action could prompt one to take actions that will be beneficial  regardless of what Congress does. As always, taking action in your financial affairs requires analysis of your unique circumstances. You should not act because of the hysterical guidance from pundits.

When Congress last faced this type of situation, in the debt ceiling negotiations last year, the outcome and the market reaction surprised nearly everyone.  For now, make sure that if you take action, you're doing no harm to your long-term interests regardless of what emerges from Capitol Hill.

If what you plan results in improved portfolio diversification, better investments or a more thoughtful approach to your financial future, go ahead. But don't act impulsively and undo long-held plans only because of this short-term  struggle.