Tuesday, October 18, 2011

Stock Market Logic


 The End is Near

The stock market works on its own logic and smart people who apply normal logic to it do so at their own peril. Most people have been fearful about the market, despairing about the economy and disgusted with the government. So what did the market do? The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose more than 1,000 points in little over a week in early October. Did the outlook suddenly improve dramatically? Not at all. It’s true the world didn’t end. Most of the time it doesn’t.  In the ashes of bear markets and terrible recessions, great bull markets are born. The light at the end of the tunnel always seems a long way off but we get there at unexpected times and sometimes with surprising speed. Beneath the gloomy headlines, some positive news lurks. Major banks have reported strong lending for the first time in four years, the Federal budget deficit dropped $300 billion from the original estimates because of higher revenues and lower spending and it is expected to drop another $300 billion next year, according to the U.S. budget office. Eventually the economy will heal and employment will improve and the stock market will lead. No one knows when that will happen but it doesn’t pay to despair.