Friday, November 21, 2008

A Calm Hysteria

A Question of Confidence

Over the course of my investment career, there's never been a time when so many people have had so many emotional questions for me about the stock market and the economy. Every question is tinged with fear and concern and anger. At the same time, on the surface, life seems to be the same for most people.

Confidence is the essential ingredient in a modern economy and it has nearly vanished. People are creatures of habbit and they maintain their routines. But we are in danger that the panic will become so ingrained and do so much damage that it will take a long time and herculean efforts to regain that confidence.

Just in the last week I've had questions about what will happen if Citibank fails and if the auto companies fail. I talked to one person who has been to two funerals in the last month of friends or relatives who committed suicide because of financial stress. Another friend is abandoning his apartment because the property value has shrunk so much. Others are worried about their jobs and everything else.

At the same time, it can still be tough to get a parking place in a mall. And away from the TV news, the newspaper headlines and the computer screens, life seems shockingly normal.

It's always difficult to tell the difference during a recession and it affects everyone differently and most people haven't lost their job or their house. This recession is especially odd because the trouble was widely known for several years but it still burst into a full-blown crisis suddenly and with unexpected force. This panic has spread globally and taken us to places that most people thought we would never see.

While we know that the economy will be bad for months if not years, we still don't know how bad and that uncertainty makes things worse. Hearing people like Alan Greenspan say they don't know what's going on exacerbates the fear. We can only hope that the fear will abate, that the policy measures that have already been put in place will kick in over the next few months and that new solutions will be found.